Zochitika zachuma zomwe zikubwera pa 7 Novembara 2024

Nthawi(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	chochitika	Mapa	Previous
00:30		2 mfundo	Ndalama Zamalonda (Sep)	5.240B	5.644B
01:30		2 mfundo	Zovomerezeka Zomangamanga (MoM)	4.4%	-3.9%
03:00		2 mfundo	Zotumiza kunja (YoY) (Oct)	5.0%	2.4%
03:00		2 mfundo	Zolowa Zakunja (YoY) (Oct)	-1.5%	0.3%
03:00		2 mfundo	Ndalama Zamalonda (USD) (Oct)	73.50B	81.71B
03:35		2 mfundo	10-Year JGB Auction	---	0.871%
08:10		2 mfundo	Schnabel wa ECB Amalankhula	---	---
10:45		2 mfundo	Elderson wa ECB Akulankhula	---	---
13:30		2 mfundo	Kupitiliza Zodandaula Zopanda Ntchito	1,880K	1,862K
13:30		3 mfundo	Mayankho Oyamba Opanda Ntchito	223K	216K
13:30		2 mfundo	Nonfarm Production (QoQ) (Q3)	2.6%	2.5%
13:30		2 mfundo	Mtengo wa Unit Labor (QoQ) (Q3)	1.1%	0.4%
13:30		2 mfundo	Njira ya ECB Imalankhula	---	---
15:00		2 mfundo	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep)	0.1%	0.5%
18:00		2 mfundo	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.4%	2.4%
19:00		3 mfundo	Chithunzi cha FOMC	---	---
19:00		3 mfundo	Chigamulo cha Chiwongola dzanja cha Fed	4.75%	5.00%
19:30		3 mfundo	Msonkhano Wa Wa FOMC	---	---
20:00		2 mfundo	Ngongole ya Ogula (Sep)	12.20B	8.93B
21:30		2 mfundo	Malipiro a Fed	---	7,013B
23:30		2 mfundo	Kugwiritsa Ntchito Pakhomo (MoM) (Sep)	-0.7%	2.0%
23:30		2 mfundo	Kugwiritsa Ntchito Pakhomo (YoY) (Sep)	-1.8%	-1.9%

Chidule cha Zochitika Zachuma Zomwe Zikubwera pa Novembara 7, 2024

1. Australia Trade Balance (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
   Imatsata kusiyana pakati pa zotumiza kunja ndi zolowa kunja. Zoneneratu: A$5.240B, Patsogolo: A$5.644B. Kuchulukitsa kocheperako kungatanthauze kuchedwetsa ntchito yotumiza kunja, yomwe ingakhale yolemera pa AUD.
2. Zivomerezo Zomangamanga ku Australia (MoM) (00:30 UTC):
   Imayesa kusintha kwa chiwerengero cha zilolezo zomanga. Zoneneratu: 4.4%, Patsogolo: -3.9%. Kuwonjezeka kumawonetsa mphamvu pakumanga, kuthandizira AUD.
3. China Exports & Imports (YoY) (Oct) (03:00 UTC):
   Zolosera Zakunja: 5.0%, Zam'mbuyo: 2.4%. Zolosera Zam'mwamba: -1.5%, Zam'mbuyo: 0.3%. Kuchulukirachulukira kwa katundu wakunja kukuwonetsa kufunikira kwamphamvu kwakunja, pomwe kutsika kochepa kumawonetsa kutsika kwapakhomo.
4. China Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) (03:00 UTC):
   Amayezera kusiyana pakati pa zotumiza kunja ndi zolowa kunja mu USD. Zoneneratu: $73.50B, Patsogolo: $81.71B. Kuchulukitsa kokulirapo kungathandizire CNY powonetsa malonda amphamvu.
5. Japan 10-year-JGB Auction (03:35 UTC):
   Imatsata kufunikira kwa ma bond aboma la Japan azaka 10. Zokolola zapamwamba zikuwonetsa kufunikira kwa kubweza kwakukulu, zomwe zingakhudze JPY.
6. Zolankhula za Schnabel ndi Elderson za ECB (08:10 & 10:45 UTC):
   Zolankhula za akuluakulu a ECB a Isabel Schnabel ndi a Frank Elderson zitha kupereka chidziwitso pazachuma za Eurozone, zomwe zimakhudza EUR.
7. Kupitiliza kwa US & Zoneneratu Zopanda Ntchito (13:30 UTC):
   Imatsata zolemba zaulova. Zoneneratu Zoyamba: 223K, Zam'mbuyo: 216K. Zonena zapamwamba zikuwonetsa kufewetsa msika wantchito, zomwe zitha kukhudza USD.
8. US Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) (13:30 UTC):
   Zoneneratu Zopanga: 2.6%, Zam'mbuyo: 2.5%. Kukula kwakukulu kwa zokolola kungathandize kuti chuma chiyende bwino, pomwe kukwera mtengo kwa ogwira ntchito (Forecast: 1.1%) kumawonetsa kupsinjika kwa malipiro.
9. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) (15:00 UTC):
   Imayesa kusintha kwazinthu zamalonda, kuphatikiza magalimoto. Zoneneratu: 0.1%, M'mbuyomu: 0.5%. Kuchulukirachulukira kwazinthu kukuwonetsa kufowoka pakufunidwa kwa ogula.
10. Ndemanga ya US FOMC & Chigamulo cha Mtengo (19:00 UTC):
    Zolosera Mlingo: 4.75%, Previous: 5.00%. Kupatuka kulikonse kungakhudze kwambiri USD. Chiganizo ndi chigamulo cha mtengo zidzakhudza ziyembekezo za ndondomeko yamtsogolo.
11. Msonkhano wa Atolankhani wa FOMC (19:30 UTC):
    Ndemanga za Fed Chair pamsonkhano wa atolankhani zidzaperekanso zina zokhudzana ndi chigamulo chamtengo wapatali, zomwe zimakhudza kuyembekezera kwa msika pakukwera kwa mitengo ndi kukula.
12. Ngongole ya Ogula ku US (Sep) (20:00 UTC):
    Imayezera kusintha kwa mwezi uliwonse pamilingo yangongole ya ogula. Zoneneratu: $12.20B, Patsogolo: $8.93B. Kukwera kogwiritsa ntchito ngongole kukuwonetsa kuwononga ndalama kwa ogula, kuthandizira USD.
13. Kuwononga Ndalama Zapakhomo ku Japan (YoY & MoM) (Sep) (23:30 UTC):
    Imayesa kuwononga kwa ogula ku Japan. Zoneneratu za YoY: -1.8%, Zam'mbuyo: -1.9%. Kutsika kwa ndalama kukuwonetsa kufooka kwapakhomo, komwe kungathe kulemera pa JPY.

Market Impact Analysis

• Ndalama Zamalonda ku Australia & Zivomerezo Zomangamanga:
  Kuvomerezeka kwamphamvu kwanyumba kungathandizire AUD, kuwonetsa kulimba m'nyumba. Kuchulukirako pang'ono kwa malonda, komabe, kungapangitse kukula kofooka kwa katundu wakunja, komwe kungathe kuyeza ndalamazo.
• China Trade Data:
  Kuchulukirachulukira kwa katundu wakunja kukuwonetsa kufunikira kokulirapo padziko lonse lapansi, kuthandizira chuma chomwe chiwopsezedwa, pomwe kuchepa kwa zinthu zomwe zimachokera kunja kungawonetse kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwapakhomo, zomwe zitha kusokoneza malonda ndi ndalama zomwe zimakhala zowopsa.
• Zofuna Zopanda Ntchito ku US & Mtengo Wantchito:
  Kuwonjezeka kwa zodandaula za anthu opanda ntchito kapena ndalama zogwirira ntchito kungapangitse kuti msika wa ogwira ntchito ukhale wofewa komanso kuwonjezereka kwa malipiro, zomwe zingakhudze ndondomeko ya Fed.
• Ndemanga ya FOMC, Chigamulo cha Mtengo, & Msonkhano wa Atolankhani:
  Ngati Fed ikusunga mitengo kapena kuwonetsa malingaliro ochulukirapo, izi zitha kulemera pa USD. Kamvekedwe ka hawkish kapena kukwera kwamitengo kungathandizire USD, kugogomezera kuwongolera kwa inflation.
• Kuwononga Nyumba ku Japan:
  Kutsika kwa ndalama kumawonetsa chidaliro chochepa cha ogula, chomwe chingathe kufewetsa JPY momwe zikuwonetseratu kutsika kwachuma.

Zotsatira Zonse

Kusasinthasintha:
Pamwamba, ndi chidwi chachikulu pa mawu a FOMC, chisankho chamtengo wapatali, ndi msonkhano wa atolankhani. Zambiri zamalonda zaku Australia, ziwerengero zamalonda zaku China, ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya ogwira ntchito ku US zipangitsanso chidwi cha msika, makamaka pokhudzana ndi zomwe zikuyembekezeka kukula.

Zotsatira: 8/10, monga chitsogozo cha banki yapakati kuchokera ku Fed ndi deta ya msika wa ogwira ntchito zidzasintha ziyembekezo zanthawi yochepa za kukwera kwa mitengo, kukula, ndi ndondomeko zandalama kumayiko onse akuluakulu.