Zochitika zachuma zomwe zikubwera pa 4 Okutobala 2024

Nthawi(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	chochitika	Mapa	Previous
01:30		2 mfundo	Ngongole Zanyumba (MoM) (Aug)	---	2.9%
10:00		2 mfundo	De Guindos wa ECB Amalankhula	---	---
12:30		2 mfundo	Avereji ya Maola Ola (YoY) (YoY) (Sep)	3.3%	3.8%
12:30		3 mfundo	Avereji ya Maola Ola (MoM) (Sep)	0.3%	0.4%
12:30		3 mfundo	Malipiro a Nonfarm (Sep)	148K	142K
12:30		2 mfundo	Mlingo (Sep)	---	62.7%
12:30		2 mfundo	Malipiro a Private Nonfarm (Sep)	125K	118K
12:30		2 mfundo	U6 Mlingo wa Ulova (Sep)	---	7.9%
12:30		3 mfundo	Mlingo wa Ulova (Sep)	4.2%	4.2%
13:00		2 mfundo	Membala wa FOMC Williams Akulankhula	---	---
13:10		2 mfundo	Elderson wa ECB Akulankhula	---	---
17:00		2 mfundo	US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	---	484
17:00		2 mfundo	US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	---	587
19:30		2 mfundo	CFTC Crude Oil Speculative net positions	---	158.6K
19:30		2 mfundo	Malingaliro a kampani CFTC Gold	---	315.4K
19:30		2 mfundo	CFTC Nasdaq 100 malo ongoyerekeza	---	16.0K
19:30		2 mfundo	CFTC S&P 500 malo ongoyerekeza	---	-35.8K
19:30		2 mfundo	CFTC AUD zongoyerekeza ukonde maudindo	---	-11.2K
19:30		2 mfundo	CFTC JPY zongoyerekeza ukonde malo	---	66.0K
19:30		2 mfundo	CFTC EUR zongoyerekeza ukonde malo	---	71.7K

Chidule cha Zochitika Zazachuma Zomwe Zikubwera pa Okutobala 4, 2024

1. Ngongole Zanyumba zaku Australia (MoM) (Aug) (01:30 UTC):
   Imayezera kusintha kwa mwezi ndi mwezi kwa kuchuluka kwa ngongole zanyumba zatsopano. M'mbuyomu: 2.9%. Kuwonjezeka kungasonyeze ntchito za msika wa nyumba zapamwamba.
2. De Guindos wa ECB Amalankhula (10:00 UTC):
   Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa European Central Bank Luis de Guindos atha kupereka chidziwitso pamalingaliro a ECB pazachuma kapena ndondomeko yazachuma yamtsogolo.
3. Ndalama Zapakati pa Ola la US (YoY) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Kukula kwa chaka ndi chaka pa avareji ya malipiro a ola limodzi. Zoneneratu: 3.3%, M'mbuyomu: 3.8%. Kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kungachepetse nkhawa za kukwera kwa mitengo, pomwe kukula kwachuma kumatha kuwonetsa kutsika kwamitengo komwe kumayendetsedwa ndi malipiro.
4. Ndalama Zapakati pa Ola la US (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Imayesa kusintha kwa malipiro pamwezi. Zoneneratu: 0.3%, M'mbuyomu: 0.4%. Kuwerenga mwamphamvu kumatha kuwonetsa zovuta za inflation mumsika wantchito.
5. Malipiro a US Nonfarm (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Chizindikiro chachikulu cha kusintha kwa ntchito mu chuma cha US. Zoneneratu: 148K, Patsogolo: 142K. Kukula kwamphamvu kumawonetsa msika wantchito wolimba, pomwe kuchuluka kocheperako kungayambitse nkhawa.
6. Mtengo Wotenga Mbali ku US (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Imatsata kuchuluka kwa anthu azaka zogwira ntchito omwe akutenga nawo gawo pamsika wantchito. Zotsatira: 62.7%. Chiwerengero chokwera chikusonyeza kuti anthu ambiri akugwira ntchito.
7. Malipiro a US Private Nonfarm (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Imatsata kusintha kwa ntchito m'mabizinesi apadera. Zoneneratu: 125K, Patsogolo: 118K. Kuwerenga mwamphamvu kungasonyeze mphamvu zachuma pakulemba ntchito payekha.
8. Ulova wa US U6 (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Mulingo wokulirapo wa ulova womwe umaphatikizapo ogwira ntchito olefulidwa ndi osalembedwa ntchito. Zowonjezera: 7.9%. Kukwera kwakukulu kumawonetsa kufooka kwa msika wantchito.
9. Mlingo wa Ulova waku US (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Chizindikiro chachikulu cha thanzi la msika wogwira ntchito. Zoneneratu: 4.2%, Zam'mbuyo: 4.2%. Mlingo wokhazikika kapena wocheperako ukuwonetsa kulimba kwa msika wantchito, pomwe kuwonjezeka kungayambitse nkhawa.
10. Membala wa FOMC Williams Alankhula (13:00 UTC):
    Ndemanga zochokera kwa John Williams, Purezidenti wa Federal Reserve Bank of New York, angapereke zidziwitso za ndondomeko ya Fed yamtsogolo, makamaka zokhudzana ndi chiwongoladzanja ndi kukwera kwa mitengo.
11. Elderson wa ECB Akulankhula (13:10 UTC):
    Ndemanga zochokera kwa membala wa ECB Executive Board a Frank Elderson atha kuwunikira malingaliro a ECB pakukula kwa inflation ndi zochitika zachuma mu Eurozone.
12. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Imatsata kuchuluka kwa zida zopangira mafuta ku US. Previous: 484. Kusintha kwa chiwerengero cha rig kungasonyeze kusintha kwa kupanga mafuta ndi kupereka.
13. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Imayesa kuchuluka kwa zida zopangira mafuta ndi gasi ku US. M'mbuyomu: 587. Kuwonjezeka kwa chiwerengero chowerengera kukuwonetsa kuchuluka kwa ntchito zamagulu amagetsi.
14. CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Imawonetsa ukonde wautali kapena waufupi m'malo amafuta osayembekezeka omwe amalonda amakhala nawo. Kenako: 158.6K. Kuwonjezeka kwa malo ochulukirapo kumatha kuwonetsa malingaliro akukula pamsika wamafuta.
15. CFTC Gold Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Imatsata zongopeka zamtsogolo zagolide. Kenako: 315.4K. Kukwera kwa maukonde aatali kukuwonetsa ziyembekezo zakukwera kwamitengo yagolide.
16. CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Imawonetsa malo ongoyerekeza mum'tsogolo wa Nasdaq 100. Kenako: 16.0K Maudindo aatali apamwamba akuwonetsa chiyembekezo muzinthu zamakono.
17. CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Imayesa malingaliro ongopeka mu S&P 500 zam'tsogolo. Kenako: -35.8K. Kusintha kopita ku maudindo aatali kungasonyeze kudalira kwachuma ku US.
18. CFTC AUD Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Zikuwonetsa phindu lapakati pa kutembenuka kwa Aussie dollar kulowa Aussie dollar. Kenako: -11.2K. Kusunthira kumalo ochulukirapo kumatha kuwonetsa malingaliro abwino a AUD.
19. CFTC JPY Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Imatsata malo ongopeka mu tsogolo la yen yaku Japan. Kenako: 66.0K. Kukwera kwa maudindo aatali kukuwonetsa kuwonjezeka kwa malingaliro a JPY.
20. CFTC EUR Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Imayesa malo ongoyerekeza mu yuro. Kenako: 71.7K. Maudindo apamwamba akuwonetsa chiyembekezo cha EUR.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Ngongole Zanyumba zaku Australia:
  Kukula kwamphamvu kuposa kuyembekezera kwa ngongole zanyumba kungathandizire AUD, kuwonetsa mphamvu ya msika wa nyumba. Kutsika kungasonyeze kufunikira kozizira.
• Zolankhula za ECB (De Guindos ndi Elderson):
  Malingaliro aliwonse okhudza kukhwimitsa ndalama zamtsogolo kapena kukwera kwa mitengo kungasunthire EUR. Ndemanga za Hawkish zitha kuthandizira EUR, pomwe zonena zabodza zitha kufooketsa.
• Ndalama Zapakati pa Ola la US ndi Malipiro Opanda Ulimi:
  Zizindikiro zazikulu za msika wa ogwira ntchitozi ndizofunikira kwambiri pakuwunika kukwera kwa mitengo komanso mayendedwe otsatira a Fed. Kukula kwamphamvu kwa malipiro kapena manambala olipidwa kuposa momwe amayembekezeredwa angalimbikitse USD, pomwe data yocheperako ingachepetse ziyembekezo zakukwera, kufooketsa ndalama.
• Mlingo wa Kutengapo Mbali kwa US & Kusowa Ntchito:
  Kukwera kwa chiwerengero cha anthu omwe akutenga nawo mbali kungasonyeze kutukuka kwa msika wogwira ntchito, kuthandizira USD. Ngati chiwopsezo cha kusowa kwa ntchito chikukwera, chikhoza kuyambitsa nkhawa za kuchepa kwachuma, kufooketsa USD.
• Kulankhula kwa Membala wa FOMC Williams:
  Ndemanga za Hawkish pa kukwera kwa mitengo kapena chiwongola dzanja zitha kukulitsa USD, pomwe kusamala kumatha kufewetsa.
• Baker Hughes Rig Amawerengera:
  Kuchulukirachulukira kwa zida zopangira mafuta kukuwonetsa kulimba kwamafuta ndi gasi, komwe kungathe kulemera pamitengo yamafuta osakhazikika.
• CFTC Speculative positions:
  Kusintha kwa malo ongoyerekeza kumapereka chidziwitso pamalingaliro amalonda. Kuchulukitsidwa kwamphamvu mumafuta amafuta, golide, kapena ma equities kungasonyeze chidaliro m'misikayi, pomwe kusunthira kumalo okwera kumatha kuwonetsa chenjezo.

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Zotsatira Zonse

Kusasinthasintha:
Zochepa mpaka zokwera, motsogozedwa ndi zidziwitso zofunikira pamsika wazantchito waku US (malipiro a nonfarm, malipiro) ndi malo ongoyerekeza pazinthu zazikulu ndi misika yazachuma. Zolankhula za banki yapakati zimawonjezera mwayi wosintha msika, makamaka pozungulira ndondomeko yazachuma yamtsogolo.

Zotsatira: 8/10, chifukwa cha kufunikira kwa malipiro a US nonfarm, deta ya malipiro, ndi chidziwitso chokhoza kusuntha msika kuchokera kwa akuluakulu a ECB ndi Fed.